Out on a Fantasy Football Limb Volume 12

I'm going back on a limb again for Week 13 in the NFL. I will pick five players that I believe will score more points this week than a higher profile player. The scoring will be 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. I went 3-2 in my picks last week to improve to 30-25. A deeper look into the numbers shows I'm 8-3 at QB, 11-11 at RB, and 11-11 at the WR/TE slot. I also implemented a Super Stretch pick, which I lost. I'll recap last week.

Last Week
Joey Harrington 22.85 beat Philip Rivers 6.55 as I predicted.
Brian Westbrook 23 destroyed Rudi Johnson 12.4 WHICH I GOT HORRIBY WRONG.
Marion Barber and Steven Jackson 20.6 & 25.2 combined forces to beat LT 27.4 as I predicted.
Lee Evans 5.8 beat Braylon Edwards 2.9 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Andre Johnson 15.8 beat Chad Johnson 12.9 as I predicted.
Super Stretch
Jamal Lewis 13 beat DeAngelo Williams 8.6 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Season Record: 30-25, 0-2

This Week's Picks

Aaron Brooks over David Carr
I'll take Brooks (434 yards, 2 TDs ) over Carr (2217, 10) in the Oakland - Houston showdown.


Laurence Maroney over Fred Taylor
I'll go with the rookie (798 total yards, 5 TDs) over the veteran (1092 total, 4 TDs) in these RBBC backs.


Wali Lundy over Willis McGahee
McGahee (777 total, 3 TDs) came back strong last week. This week San Diego will hold him in check. Lundy (577, 3 TDs) should have a strong game against Oakland.


Laveranues Coles over Chad Johnson
Coles (826, 4) is coming off a nice game. He gets to face GB. He should do well. I'll try my luck against Chad (1055, 7) despite his torrid pace. Baltimore should keep him in check.


Devery Henderson over Darrell Jackson
Devery (548, 4) is catching passes from the hottest QB in the business. He has to share touches with a bunch of guys, but his big play ability in remarkable. D-Jax (805, 9) is still working out the kinks with Hasselbeck and will be fed a steady diet of Champ Bailey.

SUPER STRETCH

Benard Berrian over Torry Holt
Berrian (599, 4) had a nice game against the Pats. The Vikes have been giving up yards like crazy through the air. Holt (795, 7) seems as likely to keep up his struggles as he is of breaking out of this slump.

Previous Out on a Limb Picks
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12

What did you think of my predictions? Do you have any fantasy upsets in mind? Please leave your comments.

Out on a Fantasy Football Limb Volume 11

I'm going back on a limb again for Week 12 in the NFL. I will pick five players that I believe will score more points this week than a higher profile player. The scoring will be 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. I went 2-3 in my picks last week to fall to 27-23. A deeper look into the numbers shows I'm 7-3 at QB, 10-10 at RB, and 10-10 at the unpredictable WR/TE slot. I also implemented a Super Stretch pick, which I lost. I'll recap last week. I am adding a new feature to this series. I will pick a super stretch. One that looks like an insane pick.

Last Week
Big Ben 23.6 beat Eli 15.3 as I predicted.
LT 41.9 destroyed Willie Parker 18.3 WHICH I GOT HORRIBY WRONG.
Chester Taylor 20 doubled up on Julius Jones 10.4 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Reggie Wayne 17.1 destroyed Donald Driver 4.2 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Marvin Harrison 9.4 beat Torry Holt 6.8 as I predicted.
Super Stretch: Philip Rivers 19.2 beat Gradkowski 17.8 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Season Record: 27-23, 0-1

Why did I try and beat LT? That was foolish.

This Week's Picks


Joey Harrington over Philip Rivers
Joey (1504, 7 TDs) gets his revenge this week. Rivers (2307, 15) will be handing off plenty to LT against the men in black.


Steven Jackson and Marion Barber over LaDainian Tomlinson
LT made me look silly last week. I'm taking him on again. Only this time I'm going 2-on-1. He's that good. Jackson (1293 total yards, 5 TDs) is coming off a pretty poor performance. I'm guessing he'll bounce back. Barber (552 total yards, 9 TDs) punched in twice against the Colts. They will combine forces to take down LT (1488, 22 TDs - plus one passing).


Rudi Johnson over Brian Westbrook
Rudi (897 total, 7 TDs) has a nice matchup against Cleveland. Westbrook (1199, 7 TDs) will be turned to more with McNabb out. He has a nice matchup against Indy, but I'm guessing their key will be to contain Westy. This will be a good test to see where Westbrook's fantasy value is.


Andre Johnson over Chad Johnson
Smith (884, 4 TDs) should smoke Washington. Ocho Cinco (949, 7 TDs) has been on fire. I bet they still play up the Pepto thing in Cleveland.


Braylon Edwards over Lee Evans
Braylon (612, 3) will have a solid game against Cincy. Lee Evans (822, 4) won't keep up his second half history of monster games against Jacksonville.

SUPER STRETCH

DeAngelo Williams over Jamal Lewis
I'll roll out DeAngelo (272, TD) against Washington even though Jamal (669, 5) is clicking.

Previous Out on a Limb Picks
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11

What did you think of my predictions? Do you have any fantasy upsets in mind? Please leave your comments.

Out on a Fantasy Football Limb Volume 10

I'm going back on a limb again for Week 11 in the NFL. I will pick five players that I believe will score more points this week than a higher profile player. The scoring will be 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. I rebounded by going 3-2 in my picks last week to improve to 25-20. A deeper look into the numbers shows I'm 6-3 at QB, 10-8 at RB, and a mere 9-9 at the unpredictable WR/TE slot. I'll recap last week.

Last Week
Steve McNair 31.55 destroyed David Carr 13.15 as I predicted.
Thomas Jones 18.3 destroyed Ahman Green 5.5 as I predicted.
Tiki Barber beat Warrick Dunn 10.8 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Javon Walker 12.2 beat Roy Williams 8.1 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Chad Johnson 38 destroyed Marques Colston 16.9 as I predicted.
Season Record: 25-20
I was even better than my 3-2 record suggests this week. The ones I got right were blowouts. The ones that I got wrong were fairly close.

This Week's Picks


Big Ben over Eli Manning
Big Ben (2043 yards, 10 TDs) will keep it rolling against Cleveland. Eli (1972, 15) has come back to Earth. Playing on MNF in Jacksonville won't be easy.


Willie Parker over LaDainian Tomlinson
You can't complain this one is too easy. LT (1309 total yards, 18 TDs) has been on fire. Playing in Denver will slow the LT train a bit. I'm not saying he'll get shut down, but I think Fast Willie (1001 total yards, 10 TDs) will do a little more against Cleveland.


Julius Jones over Chester Taylor
JJ (820 total yards, 3 TDs) faces an Indy D that is bad against the run. Chester Taylor (1012 total yards, 3 TDs) faces a suddenly strong Miami D. JJ will prevail.


Marvin Harrison over Torry Holt
It's Marvin's (719, 5 TDs) turn to be the apple of Peyton's eye again. Carolina will put pressure on Marc Bulger and keep Holt's (697, 7 TDs) from a monster game.


Donald Driver over Reggie Wayne
Driver (771, 4) is coming off a monster effort. He'll keep it up against New England. Wayne (774, 6) will probably still have a solid game, but not as good as Driver.

Previous Out on a Limb Picks
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10

What did you think of my predictions? Do you have any fantasy upsets in mind? Please leave your comments.

Out on a Fantasy Football Limb Volume 9

I'm going back on a limb again for Week 10 in the NFL. I will pick five players that I believe will score more points this week than a higher profile player. The scoring will be 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. I went 2-3 in my picks last week to fall to 22-18. A deeper look into the numbers shows I'm 5-3 at QB, 9-7 at RB, and a mere 8-8 at the unpredictable WR/TE slot. I'll recap last week.

Last Week
J.P. Losman 9.3 actually beat Alex Smith 5.65 as I predicted.
Willie Parker 25.7 destroyed Maurice Jones-Drew 8.5 WHICH I GOT HORRIBLY WRONG.
Kevin Jones 26 destroyed Warrick Dunn 13.1 WHICH I GOT HORRIBLY WRONG.
Hines Ward 12.7 destroyed Reche Caldwell 2.1 WHICH I GOT HORRIBLY WRONG.
Marvin Harrison 26.5 destroyed Darryl Jackson 3.6 as I predicted.
Season Record: 22-18
I think I have been getting a little too cute with these picks. I think I'm going to far out on the limb in some of these picks. Let's see if we can turn things around this week.

This Week's Picks


Steve McNair over David Carr
You think McNair (1319 passing & 7 TDs, 63 rushing & 1 TD) has this game circled on his schedule? Returning to Tennessee should get his competitive juices flowing. David Carr (1506 passing & 9 TDs, 87 rushing & 2 TDs) travels to Jacksonville. It won't be as pleasant a road trip for Carr and the Texans as McNair's homecoming.


Thomas Jones over Ahman Green
Chicago is coming off its first defeat. Their defense was destroyed by Ronnie Brown. It's time to get back to the basics. Their defense is going to be fired up. They need to utilize Jones (708 total yards, 3 TDs) and the ground game more. Green (734 total yards, 4 TDs) has been on fire, but Minnesota still has a very good run defense. Life has been rough for Farve at the MetroDump. His miscues will stall out drives and cost Ahman carries.


Warrick Dunn over Tiki Barber
Dunn (746 total yards, 3 TDs) faces a Cleveland defense that was lit up by LT in the second half of last week's game. While Dunn is no LT, he should have no trouble putting up a solid game. Barber got his first TD of the season (he still trails his twin by a TD) last week. He is playing at home this week. Unfortunately for Tiki (1112 total yards, TD), he's going up against Chicago. As I said above, they are going to be fired up to stop Tiki after Ronnie ran wild. I think Tiki will put up solid yardage, but he won't be sniffing the endzone again this week.


Roy Williams over Javon Walker
Roy (719, 4 TDs) is coming off a monster game. Javon (789 total yards, 6 TDs) is coming off an even bigger one. Roy faces a Niners team that actually looked competent against the Vikings last week. Things return to normal on the road for the Niners defense. Roy will scorch them. I'm relying on the Oakland pass defense yet again. They are so bad against the run that they don't give up much in the air. With Rod Smith hurting, the Raiders can put more pressure on Walker.


Chad Johnson over Marques Colston
Chad (483 yards & 2 TDs) has been much less than spectacular this season as his fantasy owners know all too well. Colston (700 & 7 TDs) has been everything and a bag of chips (bet you haven't heard that one for a while) this year. Chad was virtually in tears after last week's loss. I just have a gut feeling he's going to bounce back big time this week. Colston has scored in every game, but two this year. One of those games he still produced 97 yards. The other was his only dud (38 yards against Tampa). I think he's finally due for another letdown.

Previous Out on a Limb Picks
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9

What did you think of my predictions? Do you have any fantasy upsets in mind? Please leave your comments.