Out on a Fantasy Football Limb Volume 12

I'm going back on a limb again for Week 13 in the NFL. I will pick five players that I believe will score more points this week than a higher profile player. The scoring will be 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. I went 3-2 in my picks last week to improve to 30-25. A deeper look into the numbers shows I'm 8-3 at QB, 11-11 at RB, and 11-11 at the WR/TE slot. I also implemented a Super Stretch pick, which I lost. I'll recap last week.

Last Week
Joey Harrington 22.85 beat Philip Rivers 6.55 as I predicted.
Brian Westbrook 23 destroyed Rudi Johnson 12.4 WHICH I GOT HORRIBY WRONG.
Marion Barber and Steven Jackson 20.6 & 25.2 combined forces to beat LT 27.4 as I predicted.
Lee Evans 5.8 beat Braylon Edwards 2.9 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Andre Johnson 15.8 beat Chad Johnson 12.9 as I predicted.
Super Stretch
Jamal Lewis 13 beat DeAngelo Williams 8.6 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Season Record: 30-25, 0-2

This Week's Picks

Aaron Brooks over David Carr
I'll take Brooks (434 yards, 2 TDs ) over Carr (2217, 10) in the Oakland - Houston showdown.


Laurence Maroney over Fred Taylor
I'll go with the rookie (798 total yards, 5 TDs) over the veteran (1092 total, 4 TDs) in these RBBC backs.


Wali Lundy over Willis McGahee
McGahee (777 total, 3 TDs) came back strong last week. This week San Diego will hold him in check. Lundy (577, 3 TDs) should have a strong game against Oakland.


Laveranues Coles over Chad Johnson
Coles (826, 4) is coming off a nice game. He gets to face GB. He should do well. I'll try my luck against Chad (1055, 7) despite his torrid pace. Baltimore should keep him in check.


Devery Henderson over Darrell Jackson
Devery (548, 4) is catching passes from the hottest QB in the business. He has to share touches with a bunch of guys, but his big play ability in remarkable. D-Jax (805, 9) is still working out the kinks with Hasselbeck and will be fed a steady diet of Champ Bailey.

SUPER STRETCH

Benard Berrian over Torry Holt
Berrian (599, 4) had a nice game against the Pats. The Vikes have been giving up yards like crazy through the air. Holt (795, 7) seems as likely to keep up his struggles as he is of breaking out of this slump.

Previous Out on a Limb Picks
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12

What did you think of my predictions? Do you have any fantasy upsets in mind? Please leave your comments.

Out on a Fantasy Football Limb Volume 11

I'm going back on a limb again for Week 12 in the NFL. I will pick five players that I believe will score more points this week than a higher profile player. The scoring will be 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. I went 2-3 in my picks last week to fall to 27-23. A deeper look into the numbers shows I'm 7-3 at QB, 10-10 at RB, and 10-10 at the unpredictable WR/TE slot. I also implemented a Super Stretch pick, which I lost. I'll recap last week. I am adding a new feature to this series. I will pick a super stretch. One that looks like an insane pick.

Last Week
Big Ben 23.6 beat Eli 15.3 as I predicted.
LT 41.9 destroyed Willie Parker 18.3 WHICH I GOT HORRIBY WRONG.
Chester Taylor 20 doubled up on Julius Jones 10.4 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Reggie Wayne 17.1 destroyed Donald Driver 4.2 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Marvin Harrison 9.4 beat Torry Holt 6.8 as I predicted.
Super Stretch: Philip Rivers 19.2 beat Gradkowski 17.8 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Season Record: 27-23, 0-1

Why did I try and beat LT? That was foolish.

This Week's Picks


Joey Harrington over Philip Rivers
Joey (1504, 7 TDs) gets his revenge this week. Rivers (2307, 15) will be handing off plenty to LT against the men in black.


Steven Jackson and Marion Barber over LaDainian Tomlinson
LT made me look silly last week. I'm taking him on again. Only this time I'm going 2-on-1. He's that good. Jackson (1293 total yards, 5 TDs) is coming off a pretty poor performance. I'm guessing he'll bounce back. Barber (552 total yards, 9 TDs) punched in twice against the Colts. They will combine forces to take down LT (1488, 22 TDs - plus one passing).


Rudi Johnson over Brian Westbrook
Rudi (897 total, 7 TDs) has a nice matchup against Cleveland. Westbrook (1199, 7 TDs) will be turned to more with McNabb out. He has a nice matchup against Indy, but I'm guessing their key will be to contain Westy. This will be a good test to see where Westbrook's fantasy value is.


Andre Johnson over Chad Johnson
Smith (884, 4 TDs) should smoke Washington. Ocho Cinco (949, 7 TDs) has been on fire. I bet they still play up the Pepto thing in Cleveland.


Braylon Edwards over Lee Evans
Braylon (612, 3) will have a solid game against Cincy. Lee Evans (822, 4) won't keep up his second half history of monster games against Jacksonville.

SUPER STRETCH

DeAngelo Williams over Jamal Lewis
I'll roll out DeAngelo (272, TD) against Washington even though Jamal (669, 5) is clicking.

Previous Out on a Limb Picks
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11

What did you think of my predictions? Do you have any fantasy upsets in mind? Please leave your comments.

Why your league should be auction

Is your league an auction league? Most often the answer is no. Why is that? Is it because you're used to doing snake drafts? If that's the case, I urge you to at least take some time and consider the possibilty of an auction. How bad do you want the #1 pick next year? Anyone would kill to have LT on their team. #2 won't be that bad either. LJ plays a pretty sweet second fiddle. How many people are in your league? 10? 12? That's either 8 or 10 people who have no prayer at LT or LJ. I don't know about you, but my math says those aren't good odds. You have a 16-20% chance of getting one of the true workhorses. Now imagine an auction draft. If you have a pulse, you have a shot at one of these studs. There is a catch though. You have to pay for it. This is America. If you want the best, you have to pony up. Auction style leagues are Capitalism at its finest. If you want to kick things off with the finest running backs, you will need to be a sharp drafter to fill out your team. What's the penalty for having the first pick in a snake draft? You get the last pick in the 2nd round. Oh no, how dare they. Wait a second. They give you the first pick in the third round to soften the blow. So it's fairer to draft auction style. Am I overreacting? Just how good has LT been this year? He has more TDs (23:19 rushing, 3 receiving, and 1 passing) than Manning (22:20 passing, 2 rushing) or McNabb (21:18 passing, 3 rushing).

So it may be fairer to draft auction style, but the anticipation of your turn is exciting? That is true. You have your eye on a certain player. You hope he makes it to you. Cross your fingers. Screw that. In an auction, you are in every single pick that you want to be. You can bid guys up so they go for fair value. You can go after the guys you want on your team. There is the risk of getting stuck with a guy you're bidding up. The intensity of an auction is unmatched in snake drafts. Sure, it takes more work and preparation. Isn't that what serious fantasy football gamers do? You have to think on your toes. You have to think strategically. Do you name a big stud to sink someone's budget early? Do you hold on to that special guy for late in the draft when you can name your price for him?

I know I won't get people to change overnight, but I urge you to at least consider the auction.

Midseason NFL Lester Awards

We're one MNF game away from the halfway point of this season. After tonight's game between Seattle and Oakland, we can compare the teams and the players without having to check the bye week charts. It will be fun to compare the midseason awards with the end of the season awards.


MVP: LaDainian Tomlinson
Can there be any other choice? 12 rushing TDs. 2 receiving TDs. 1 passing TD. 828 rushing yards (2 shy of the league lead). 323 receiving yards. He's a machine. Oh yeah, the Chargers are 6-2 with a first year QB. LT makes things easier for everyone.
Just Missed: Petyon Manning


Comeback Player of the Year: Javon Walker
Walker missed virtually the entire 2005 season. He played in one game. He caught 4 passes for 27 yards. He currently ranks 6th in receiving yards with 669. He ranks first among WR's in total yards with 789. He has 5 receiving TDs and 1 rushing score.
Just Missed: Kellen Winslow, Jr.


Rookie of the Year: Marques Colston
Most people figured a Saint would win ROY. However, how many had the 44th pick of the 7th round out of Hofstra as the runaway winner? Colston is 4th in receiving yards with 700. He is tied with Torry Holt with a league leading 7 TD receptions. There is no other choice at this point.
Just Missed: Joseph Addai


Defensive Player of the Year: Champ Bailey
You know not to pass to this shutdown corner. He still has 5 INTs. Not to mention the 44 tackles.
Just Missed: London Fletcher


Coach of the Year: Tony Dungy/Sean Payton
Yes, Dungy has a good team to work with. However, he lost Edge, his defense has taken a big step back, Dwight Freeney is not the force he has been in year's past, and he still has his Colts unbeaten. They became the first team to win back-to-back games on the road against teams of 5-1 records or better. The job that Sean Payton has done has been equally impressive. To have the Saints 6-2 at the halfway point is amazing. Yes, they brought in Brees and Reggie Bush. Yes, they had Colston drop in their lap. Doesn't matter. Sean Payton has this team turned around.

All-Pro
QB: Peyton Manning - McNabb may have a little better numbers, but Peyton comes up with the big plays when his team needs it the most.
RB: LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson - 26 combined touchdowns and 2296 combined total yards.
WR: Javon Walker, Marques Colston, Torry Holt - Holt was the runaway choice, but he's been slowed for two staight weeks. Still his hot start is good enough for the midseason All-Pro Team. TE: Alge Crumpler - Vick has discovered how to pass. More often than not, Crumpler is his target. 430 yards and 6 TDs have him off to a better start than Gates and Gonzalez.
K: Robbie Gould - 22/22 on FG attempts. 24/24 on PATs. He's been amazing.

Those are my midseason awards. Do you have any differences?

Out on a Fantasy Football Limb Vol. 8

I'm going back on a limb again for Week 9 in the NFL. I will pick five players that I believe will score more points this week than a higher profile player. The scoring will be 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. I went 2-3 in my picks last week to fall to 20-15. A deeper look into the numbers shows I'm 4-3 at QB, 9-5 at RB, and a mere 7-7 at the unpredictable WR/TE slot. I'll recap last week.

Last Week's Picks:
Peyton Manning 31.15 destroyed Jake Delhomme 7.45 WHICH I GOT HORRIBLY WRONG. Edge 16.9 beat Julius Jones 15.2 as I predicted.
Chester Taylor 4.9 beat Travis Henry 2.9 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Andre Johnson 13.8 destroyed Torry Holt 4.8 as I predicted.
Hines Ward 8.1 beat Braylon Edwards 2.1 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Season Record: 20-15

This Week's Picks:


J.P. Losman over Alex Smith
This is probably one of the few weeks Losman (1313 yards, 6 TDs, 1 rushing TD) puts up decent numbers. The Vikings got picked apart by Tom Brady's passing display on MNF. Their passing defense is going to be fired up to wash that game from their memory. Alex Smith (1431 yards, 9 TDs) won't match Losman's production this week.


Maurice Jones Drew over Willie Parker
Although he splits carries with Fred Taylor, I think MJD (433 total yards, 5 TDs) will outscore Willie Parker (639 total yards, 6 TDs).


Warrick Dunn over Kevin Jones
Dunn (675 total yards, 2 TDs) and KJ (740 yards, 5 TDs) face off in Detroit. I'll take the guy who has less yards, points, and TDs, and is playing on the road. Why? Detroit stinks.


Marvin Harrison over Darryl Jackson
Reggie Wayne was the apple of Peyton's eye last week. Sensing he's feeling a little left out, Manning will target Harrison (553 yards, 3 TDs), his favorite receiver, in the showdown with New England. D-Jax (587 yards, 6 TDs) battles Oakland, who is surprisingly good against the pass. Just as Big Ben.


Reche Caldwell over Hines Ward
I'll pick on Hines (459 yards, 5 TDs) again even though it didn't work for me last week. Big Ben is going to be facing a fierce Denver defense coming off a tough loss. Champ Bailey is going to draw the Ward assignment. To keep the boo bird off me, I had to dig deep to make it a "out on a limb" pick. Caldwell (224 yards, 1 TD) is who I uncovered. He was the target of many Tom Brady passes on MNF. It's a risky pick because the Pats, who passed every down last week, could turn to the run exclusively against Indy if their defense can hold the Colts back.

Previous Out on a Limb Picks
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8

What did you think of my predictions? Do you have any fantasy upsets in mind? Please leave your comments.