Out on a Fantasy Football Limb Volume 10

I'm going back on a limb again for Week 11 in the NFL. I will pick five players that I believe will score more points this week than a higher profile player. The scoring will be 6 points for rushing or receiving TD, 4 points for a passing TD, .1 points per yard for rushing or receiving and .05 points per passing yard. I rebounded by going 3-2 in my picks last week to improve to 25-20. A deeper look into the numbers shows I'm 6-3 at QB, 10-8 at RB, and a mere 9-9 at the unpredictable WR/TE slot. I'll recap last week.

Last Week
Steve McNair 31.55 destroyed David Carr 13.15 as I predicted.
Thomas Jones 18.3 destroyed Ahman Green 5.5 as I predicted.
Tiki Barber beat Warrick Dunn 10.8 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Javon Walker 12.2 beat Roy Williams 8.1 WHICH I GOT WRONG.
Chad Johnson 38 destroyed Marques Colston 16.9 as I predicted.
Season Record: 25-20
I was even better than my 3-2 record suggests this week. The ones I got right were blowouts. The ones that I got wrong were fairly close.

This Week's Picks


Big Ben over Eli Manning
Big Ben (2043 yards, 10 TDs) will keep it rolling against Cleveland. Eli (1972, 15) has come back to Earth. Playing on MNF in Jacksonville won't be easy.


Willie Parker over LaDainian Tomlinson
You can't complain this one is too easy. LT (1309 total yards, 18 TDs) has been on fire. Playing in Denver will slow the LT train a bit. I'm not saying he'll get shut down, but I think Fast Willie (1001 total yards, 10 TDs) will do a little more against Cleveland.


Julius Jones over Chester Taylor
JJ (820 total yards, 3 TDs) faces an Indy D that is bad against the run. Chester Taylor (1012 total yards, 3 TDs) faces a suddenly strong Miami D. JJ will prevail.


Marvin Harrison over Torry Holt
It's Marvin's (719, 5 TDs) turn to be the apple of Peyton's eye again. Carolina will put pressure on Marc Bulger and keep Holt's (697, 7 TDs) from a monster game.


Donald Driver over Reggie Wayne
Driver (771, 4) is coming off a monster effort. He'll keep it up against New England. Wayne (774, 6) will probably still have a solid game, but not as good as Driver.

Previous Out on a Limb Picks
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10

What did you think of my predictions? Do you have any fantasy upsets in mind? Please leave your comments.

Midseason NFL Lester Awards

We're one MNF game away from the halfway point of this season. After tonight's game between Seattle and Oakland, we can compare the teams and the players without having to check the bye week charts. It will be fun to compare the midseason awards with the end of the season awards.


MVP: LaDainian Tomlinson
Can there be any other choice? 12 rushing TDs. 2 receiving TDs. 1 passing TD. 828 rushing yards (2 shy of the league lead). 323 receiving yards. He's a machine. Oh yeah, the Chargers are 6-2 with a first year QB. LT makes things easier for everyone.
Just Missed: Petyon Manning


Comeback Player of the Year: Javon Walker
Walker missed virtually the entire 2005 season. He played in one game. He caught 4 passes for 27 yards. He currently ranks 6th in receiving yards with 669. He ranks first among WR's in total yards with 789. He has 5 receiving TDs and 1 rushing score.
Just Missed: Kellen Winslow, Jr.


Rookie of the Year: Marques Colston
Most people figured a Saint would win ROY. However, how many had the 44th pick of the 7th round out of Hofstra as the runaway winner? Colston is 4th in receiving yards with 700. He is tied with Torry Holt with a league leading 7 TD receptions. There is no other choice at this point.
Just Missed: Joseph Addai


Defensive Player of the Year: Champ Bailey
You know not to pass to this shutdown corner. He still has 5 INTs. Not to mention the 44 tackles.
Just Missed: London Fletcher


Coach of the Year: Tony Dungy/Sean Payton
Yes, Dungy has a good team to work with. However, he lost Edge, his defense has taken a big step back, Dwight Freeney is not the force he has been in year's past, and he still has his Colts unbeaten. They became the first team to win back-to-back games on the road against teams of 5-1 records or better. The job that Sean Payton has done has been equally impressive. To have the Saints 6-2 at the halfway point is amazing. Yes, they brought in Brees and Reggie Bush. Yes, they had Colston drop in their lap. Doesn't matter. Sean Payton has this team turned around.

All-Pro
QB: Peyton Manning - McNabb may have a little better numbers, but Peyton comes up with the big plays when his team needs it the most.
RB: LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson - 26 combined touchdowns and 2296 combined total yards.
WR: Javon Walker, Marques Colston, Torry Holt - Holt was the runaway choice, but he's been slowed for two staight weeks. Still his hot start is good enough for the midseason All-Pro Team. TE: Alge Crumpler - Vick has discovered how to pass. More often than not, Crumpler is his target. 430 yards and 6 TDs have him off to a better start than Gates and Gonzalez.
K: Robbie Gould - 22/22 on FG attempts. 24/24 on PATs. He's been amazing.

Those are my midseason awards. Do you have any differences?